Jun 19, 2025
In mathematics, a Fibonacci sequence is where each number is the sum of the two numbers that precede it. Starting from 0 and 1, the sequence begins
0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, ...
The Fibonacci numbers were first described in India as early as 200 BC in work by Pingala on enumerating possible patterns of Sanskrit poetry formed from syllables of two lengths. They are named after the Italian mathematician Leonardo of Pisa, also known as Fibonacci, who introduced the sequence to the western world. They appear to reflect the natural world as the numbers describe observations of the branching in trees, the arrangement of leaves on a stem, the number of seeds in succeeding rings of a sunflower, the spiral shape of waves, etc. [Wikipedia plus]

Since these are recurring patterns in nature and since markets are, in many senses, a reflection of nature, the science of technical analysis has evolved that uses patterns based on Fibonacci numbers to try and forecast markets. I have looked cursorily at the discipline, and am very, very, very much an amateur, but I certainly find it curious since it reflects my belief that everything everywhere is connected and, indeed, one.
With my limited knowledge, the only pattern I think can understand is the head-and-shoulders (and its reverse) which looks exactly like the name suggests. I noticed that the movements of the rupee this year appear to be creating a series of these S-H-S patterns. [Apologies for all the numbers which must make this piece difficult to read.]
On Feb 10, the rupee fell to 87.90 from 86.30 (on Jan 24), before rebounding to 86.50 two days later (Feb 12), forming what is called a neck-line at 86.40 (halfway between 86.30 and 86.50); after that it moved around between 86.50 and 87.50 for over a month, before it climbed above the neck-line on Mar 20. This completed a (reverse) head-and-shoulders with a target of 84.90 [neck-line at 86.40 minus 1.50 (reverse head at 87.90 minus neck-line of 86.40)], with a pattern failure if the rupee fell back below the neck-line (86.40). In fact, the rupee strengthened sharply to 84.96 (on Apr 4) more or less reaching the target and completing the pattern.
The rupee then fell to 86.69 (on Apr 10) before shooting up again to 85.14 (on Apr 22), setting up another neck-line at 85.09 (halfway between the previous peak 84.96 and 85.14). It then stayed below the neck-line, but in about a week, it strengthened to cross the neck-line (on Apr 29), completing another reverse head and shoulders, this time with a target of 83.49 [neck-line 85.09 minus 1.60 (previous bottom 86.69 minus 85.09)]. And, sure enough, in a couple of days (by May 2), the rupee shot higher to 83.80 – close to the target but no cigar, which RBI must have been smoking.
It then fell over the next few weeks reaching a low of 85.93 on May 23. I noticed that together with its previous low (of 85.65 on April 24), it had formed a neck-line at 85.79 (halfway between 85.65 and 85.93). The rupee bounced higher in a volatile market, and finally weakened breaking the neck-line on Jun 4; together with the peak (head) of 83.80, this completed the S-H-S pattern, with a target of 87.78 [85.79 plus 1.99 (85.79 minus 83.80)].
Today is June 18 and we are at 86.50, possibly on the way to the (approximately) 88 target. I note that there are several events in the near future that could create possible market trauma to drive the rupee lower – the passage of Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill expected by July 4, the next tariff deadline of July 9, and, of course, the Israel Iran war, which could result in the Straits of Hormuz being mined and closed to shipping at any time. Clearly, a weaker rupee is certainly a possibility. Having said that, the caveat is that if the rupee climbs above the neck-line – viz., 85.79 – the S-H-S target is aborted.
Clearly, technical analysis is a tool for traders and not for risk management. However, there are pointers we can get. For instance, exporters with open positions could stay unhedged today with a stop loss at 85.79, although being completely unhedged is always a bad option and particularly foolish in such a volatile market. Another important point to learn is that the market appears to always react very sharply after a target is reached – this means that when you see a huge move, you should act immediately rather than waiting for further gains.
Again, the technical signal of further rupee weakness came nearly 2 weeks ago, when the neck-line was broken on Jun 4, and the rupee was still (a bit) stronger than 86. Any unhedged short term imports – and I pray there were none – should have been hedged then.
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Light Up and the Bus will come
May 09, 2011
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Time To Fast-track Full Convertibility
Apr 25, 2011
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A Tribute to Sarah Wells
Apr 08, 2011
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Three Birds With Two Stones
Mar 18, 2011
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Another Step Towards a New Islam
Mar 11, 2011
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Bhrabo!
Feb 28, 2011
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Another Step Towards a New Islam
Feb 22, 2011
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Don’t Arabs Love Gold Any More?
Feb 08, 2011
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Thank you, Anish Kapoor
Jan 28, 2011
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Faint Heart Never Won Fair Lady
Jan 25, 2011
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Beyond the Inflexion Point
Jan 07, 2011
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Visibility: Poor
Dec 30, 2010
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India 2030: May The God Of Your Choice Bless You
Dec 06, 2010
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The New G-7
Nov 26, 2010
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Thoughts From Turkey (and Elsewhere)
Nov 16, 2010
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Takeaways From the 2nd Quarter Review of Monetary Policy
Nov 03, 2010
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The Rise of a New Europe
Oct 25, 2010
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(Another) Lesson From the Past
Oct 08, 2010
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The OTC FX Market – Falling Behind the Curve
Sep 24, 2010
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Unnatural Hedging
Sep 03, 2010
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Smile Darlin’, It’s Better Than You Think
Aug 23, 2010
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Do You Believe in Empirical Evidence?
Jul 30, 2010
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Could the Rupee Hit 50 Again?
Jul 22, 2010
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Higher Volatility Ahead?
Jul 14, 2010
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A Return to Values?
Jul 01, 2010
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Don’t Cry for Me, Maradona
Jun 21, 2010
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Could the World Cup Trigger a Correction in the Euro?
Jun 11, 2010
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The Next Cycle
Jun 02, 2010
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I Hate to Say It, but…
May 24, 2010
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W(h)ither the Euro – a Fable
May 05, 2010
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Could the Euro Go into Long-term Decline
Apr 09, 2010
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Enabling Better Profits for Small Exporters
Apr 05, 2010
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Shades of Enron
Mar 22, 2010
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Bt or Not To Be
Mar 16, 2010
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Post Budget: A New Paradigm
Feb 26, 2010
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Budget Ideas for The Financial Sector
Feb 19, 2010
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Time For More Aggressive Regulation
Feb 03, 2010
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American Breakfast
Jan 25, 2010
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The CAG handicap
Jan 11, 2010
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Bringing Hedgers to the Futures Market
Dec 30, 2009
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The Major Currency Risk In 2010
Dec 16, 2009
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God Bless You, Mr. Obama
Dec 11, 2009
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Dear Mr. Bhave (and Dr. Subbarao)
Dec 03, 2009
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Has RBI been diversifying out of dollars?
Nov 16, 2009
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Welcome To Vegas
Nov 02, 2009
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Rabbit in the headlights – again
Oct 09, 2009
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The calm after the storm
Sep 25, 2009
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Sufferin’ Art
Sep 11, 2009
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Is it time to hedge your interest rate risk
Aug 31, 2009
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Unconventional wisdom
Aug 31, 2009
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A gift for the chairman's wife
Aug 17, 2009
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Surf’s up!
Aug 01, 2009
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Dr. Subbarao As Tiger: 25% Visibility, 75% Ability
Jul 28, 2009
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Coming of age
Jul 20, 2009
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Thoughts on the budget
Jul 09, 2009
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Guinness is good for you
Jul 02, 2009
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Will it rain the day after tomorrow?
Jun 08, 2009
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Cleaning the Augean Stables
May 19, 2009
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Bali Hai
May 14, 2009
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Another exotic bet
Apr 27, 2009
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Buy US corporate bonds
Apr 24, 2009
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Mumbai chi Meera
Apr 13, 2009
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Turning around cautiously
Mar 30, 2009
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The curious role of the forex committee
Mar 16, 2009
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Green shoots
Mar 02, 2009
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The Party Party
Feb 16, 2009
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Obama is Jamal
Feb 02, 2009
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Who do you trust?
Jan 19, 2009
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The New American Dream
Jan 05, 2009
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